By
Derek Hamilton
October 30, 2024
The US presidential election cycle has already seen many surprises. As election day approaches, much will likely be written about the election’s potential market and economic impacts. It might be helpful to take a step back and view things from a long-term perspective.
The chart below shows the total return of the S&P 500® Index over the past 90 years, as measured by investing $1,000 at the beginning of 1933. The blue shaded areas represent market performance during a Democratic presidential administration, while red represents a Republican administration. As you can see, there are very few times when equity values did not increase over the course of a president’s term, regardless of party. In fact, only President George W. Bush saw equities decline in value from the beginning to the end of his administration. We attribute this more to bad luck than to policy, as the tech bubble was bursting at the beginning of his term and the global financial crisis began at the end of his term.
Of course, the congressional makeup can affect the ability of any president to execute their agenda. Even so, the chart makes it clear equity values tend to rise over time regardless of who is in power. Only time will tell if this trend continues, as the next administration will need to address several important issues, including a large swath of tax cuts set to expire. While markets generally move higher throughout a presidential term, we do believe different industries can be impacted by government policies. Thus, understanding the nuances of how policy may affect different sectors should allow active managers to position portfolios accordingly.
Compounded returns of $1,000 invested in the S&P 500 Index, by presidential party
Sources: Macquarie, Macrobond, S&P Global.
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