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Managing Director, Economist – Ivy Equity Boutique
Derek is an Economist for Macquarie Asset Management (MAM), where he focuses on the Ivy Equity Boutique. He brings important insights and thought leadership to the firm’s investment professionals.
He joined Ivy Investments as an Economic Analyst. He became an International Analyst in 2000, specializing in foreign currencies and international economics. He was appointed International Economist in 2007 and was appointed Global Economist in 2010, before assuming his current role in 2021.
Derek earned a Bachelor of Arts in finance and economics and a Master of Business Administration in finance and management from Rockhurst College. He is a member of the CFA Institute, CFA Society of Kansas City, and the National Association for Business Economics.
By Derek Hamilton
January 23, 2024
As we look back on 2023, a few things stand out to us:
Our view remains the same. The data we examine continue to point to an environment with a high risk of economic deterioration. An example of this can be found in the chart below, which shows the percentage of US states seeing an increase in economic activity. Less than half of the states now show economic growth, which historically has been a signal that a recession is near. If this forecast comes to fruition, we believe that risk assets could struggle. We still think that inflation will fall further and that the Fed will cut rates. We plan to cover these topics in further detail soon.
Shaded areas of chart indicate recessionary periods. Source: Macrobond, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. Chart is for illustrative purposes only.
Inside the markets
Chart-powered guide with macroeconomic perspectives and insights on the markets
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Inflation is the rate at which the general level of prices for goods and services is rising, and, subsequently, purchasing power is falling. Central banks attempt to stop severe inflation, along with severe deflation, in an attempt to keep the excessive growth of prices to a minimum.
The US Core Consumer Price Index (Core CPI) is a measure of inflation that is calculated by the US Department of Labor, representing changes in prices of all goods and services, excluding those with high price volatility, such as food and energy, purchased for consumption by urban households.
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