What's in store for 2024

What's in store for 2024

hamilton-derek

Derek Hamilton

  • Managing Director, Economist – Ivy Equity Boutique
  • Read bio

As we look back on 2023, a few things stand out to us:

  • The US economy held up much better than we expected. Government spending was quite strong in 2023, accounting for more than a quarter of economic growth through September. In addition, over the past six months, government hiring accounted for roughly 30% of total job growth. This, coupled with healthy consumer spending, (due in part to a continued reduction in excess savings) seems to have kept the economy afloat despite the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) aggressive pace of interest rate hikes.
  • US inflation continued to move lower throughout 2023. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, saw a significant move lower throughout the course of the year. The annualized 3-month percent change for the core US Consumer Price Index (CPI) ended 2023 at 3.3%, down from 4.3% at the end of 2022.
  • The Fed continued to raise interest rates, pushing them up by another full percentage point over the course of the year. Over that same period, the 10-year Treasury yield rose by roughly a percentage point to around 5% in October. However, the Fed’s subsequent pause caused a full reversal, with the 10-year yield falling back to just under 4% at the end of 2023.

Where does this leave us in 2024?

Our view remains the same. The data we examine continue to point to an environment with a high risk of economic deterioration. An example of this can be found in the chart below, which shows the percentage of US states seeing an increase in economic activity. Less than half of the states now show economic growth, which historically has been a signal that a recession is near. If this forecast comes to fruition, we believe that risk assets could struggle. We still think that inflation will fall further and that the Fed will cut rates. We plan to cover these topics in further detail soon.

Percent of US states reporting increasing economic activity

July 1, 1979-November 1, 2023 >Whats in store for 2024 Chart

Shaded areas of chart indicate recessionary periods.
Source: Macrobond, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
Chart is for illustrative purposes only.

Inside the markets

Chart-powered guide with macroeconomic perspectives and insights on the markets

Access here

[3329682]

This market commentary has been prepared for general informational purposes by the author, who is part of Macquarie Asset Management (MAM), the asset management business of Macquarie Group (Macquarie), and is not a product of the Macquarie Research Department.

This market commentary reflects the views of the author and statements in it may differ from the views of others in MAM or of other Macquarie divisions or groups, including Macquarie Research. This market commentary has not been prepared to comply with requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is accordingly not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

Nothing in this market commentary shall be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell any security or other product, or to engage in or refrain from engaging in any transaction. Macquarie conducts a global full-service, integrated investment banking, asset management, and brokerage business. Macquarie may do, and seek to do, business with any of the companies covered in this market commentary. Macquarie has investment banking and other business relationships with a significant number of companies, which may include companies that are discussed in this commentary, and may have positions in financial instruments or other financial interests in the subject matter of this market commentary. As a result, investors should be aware that Macquarie may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this market commentary. In preparing this market commentary, we did not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of any particular client. You should not make an investment decision on the basis of this market commentary. Before making an investment decision you need to consider, with or without the assistance of an adviser, whether the investment is appropriate in light of your particular investment needs, objectives, and financial circumstances.

Macquarie salespeople, traders and other professionals may provide oral or written market commentary, analysis, trading strategies or research products to Macquarie’s clients that reflect opinions which are different from or contrary to the opinions expressed in this market commentary. Macquarie’s asset management business (including MAM), principal trading desks and investing businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the views expressed in this commentary. There are risks involved in investing. The price of securities and other financial products can and does fluctuate, and an individual security or financial product may even become valueless. International investors are reminded of the additional risks inherent in international investments, such as currency fluctuations and international or local financial, market, economic, tax, or regulatory conditions, which may adversely affect the value of the investment. This market commentary is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not make any representation or warranty that it is accurate, complete, or up to date. We accept no obligation to correct or update the information or opinions in this market commentary. Opinions, information, and data in this market commentary are as of the date indicated on the cover and subject to change without notice. No member of the Macquarie Group accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect, consequential, or other loss arising from any use of this market commentary and/or further communication in relation to this market commentary. Some of the data in this market commentary may be sourced from information and materials published by government or industry bodies or agencies, however this market commentary is neither endorsed or certified by any such bodies or agencies. This market commentary does not constitute legal, tax accounting, or investment advice. Recipients should independently evaluate any specific investment in consultation with their legal, tax, accounting, and investment advisors. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

This market commentary may include forward-looking statements, forecasts, estimates, projections, opinions, and investment theses, which may be identified by the use of terminology such as “anticipate,” “believe,” “estimate,” “expect,” “intend,” “may,” “can,” “plan,” “will,” “would,” “should,” “seek,” “project,” “continue,” “target,” and similar expressions. No representation is made or will be made that any forward-looking statements will be achieved or will prove to be correct or that any assumptions on which such statements may be based are reasonable. A number of factors could cause actual future results and operations to vary materially and adversely from the forward-looking statements. Qualitative statements regarding political, regulatory, market and economic environments and opportunities are based on the author’s opinion, belief, and judgment.

Investing involves risk including the possible loss of principal. The investment capabilities described herein involve risks due, among other things, to the nature of the underlying investments. All examples herein are for illustrative purposes only and there can be no assurance that any particular investment objective will be realized or any investment strategy seeking to achieve such objective will be successful.

Past performance is not a reliable indication of future performance.

Inflation is the rate at which the general level of prices for goods and services is rising, and, subsequently, purchasing power is falling. Central banks attempt to stop severe inflation, along with severe deflation, in an attempt to keep the excessive growth of prices to a minimum.

The US Core Consumer Price Index (Core CPI) is a measure of inflation that is calculated by the US Department of Labor, representing changes in prices of all goods and services, excluding those with high price volatility, such as food and energy, purchased for consumption by urban households.