Will manufacturing be an important tailwind for the economy?

Will manufacturing be an important tailwind for the economy?

hamilton-derek

Derek Hamilton

The manufacturing sector has been in the doldrums for some time. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM®) publishes a monthly survey measuring the health of the US manufacturing sector. This Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI®) has been below the break-even level of 50 for much of the past two years. Aggressive interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and a strong dollar have been meaningful headwinds for manufacturing activity. Following a period during which inventories rose to excessive levels, many companies limited production in favor of working off their inventories.

We believe the sentiment is changing, however. While we are skeptical about how far the Fed will lower interest rates, short-term rates have already fallen by one percentage point. Many foreign central banks have been lowering interest rates as well, which historically has been positive for manufacturing activity. The US dollar has continued to strengthen, though we wonder how much higher it can go over the next year. Also, inventories in many industries have been reduced to more normal levels.

We have created a model incorporating several metrics, including interest rates and the US dollar. As seen in the chart below, the model suggests manufacturing activity should improve throughout 2025, though we would note that the improvement may not be as strong as in prior manufacturing rebounds. Economic growth has been solid but uneven, and an improvement in manufacturing activity should lead to a healthier economic environment overall.

ISM Manufacturing PMI

Will manufacturing be an important tailwind for the economy

Sources: Macquarie, Macrobond, Institute for Supply Management (ISM), US Department of Treasury, US Federal Reserve, Center for Financial Stability.


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The ISM Manufacturing PMI is a monthly survey that measures the health of the US manufacturing sector, which is a key indicator of the overall US economy. The Manufacturing PMI is a composite of five indices with equal weights: New Orders, Production, Employment, Supplier Deliveries, and Inventories. A Manufacturing PMI reading above 50% indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50% indicates that it is generally contracting.

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