By
Derek Hamilton
04 February 2025
In recent years, the US economy has performed well; however, the performance has been bifurcated between large and small businesses. During this time, small businesses have been under duress, though recent data suggest this could be changing.
The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) has collected data from small businesses for decades, covering areas such as economic confidence, employment, and capital spending. For more than two years, through October 2024, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index languished at levels consistent with recessions. Several factors, including inflation, rising interest rates, and increased regulation, contributed to the weakness in this part of the economy. As a result, net income growth for the Russell 2000® Index was negative for six consecutive quarters in 2023 and 2024.
The chart below suggests the outlook for small businesses is becoming more confident. Following the US elections in November, small businesses reported a surge in confidence. A similar jump occurred following the elections in 2016 when President Trump won the presidency for the first time; however, we find it interesting that the underlying details indicate more than just newfound hope. Companies report they plan to hire more workers and need to replenish inventories. These facts suggest an improvement may have already been underway prior to the elections, possibly due to lower inflation and interest rate reductions by the Federal Reserve. The potential for deregulation and lower taxes could solidify an improving environment for small businesses.
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
Sources: Macquarie, Macrobond, NFIB. Shaded areas represent recessionary periods.
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