Federal Reserve policy in 2024

Federal Reserve policy in 2024

hamilton-derek

Derek Hamilton

  • Managing Director, Economist – Ivy Equity Boutique
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Our last two insights covered the 2024 outlook for economic growth and inflation. We believe that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will begin reducing interest rates later this year, most likely around midyear. However, the path of interest rate reductions may depend heavily on the performance of the economy as the year progresses.

We see three possible outcomes for the Fed:

  • Recession: Our expectation for a recession would include higher unemployment and inflation falling below the Fed’s 2% inflation target. The Fed’s dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability could allow for significant rate cuts later this year and into 2025, perhaps lowering interest rates by as much as a few percentage points.
  • Soft landing: As a reminder, a soft landing is defined as a slowdown in economic growth without a significant rise in unemployment. In a soft landing, inflation should gradually decline toward 2%, with a small increase in unemployment. We think the Fed would gradually lower interest rates by roughly one percentage point.
  • No landing: The US economy grew at an annual rate of more than 4% in the second half of 2023, and we expect a much weaker economy in 2024. However, if the economy doesn’t slow, the Fed could be in a bind. Inflation should mechanically come down this year because of housing prices, but continued strength in the economy could reignite inflation in other areas. We would be most concerned about services inflation. Continued economic strength could result in unemployment falling further from current low levels, creating more labor shortages and resulting in higher wage inflation. Under this scenario, we believe that the Fed’s rate cuts would be minimal, and we would expect the Fed to reverse course eventually and raise rates once again.

Federal funds rate scenarios

>Federal funds rate scenarios chart

Note: Dotted lines represent forecasted values.

Sources: Macquarie, Macrobond, US Federal Reserve.

Chart is for illustrative purposes only.


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Inflation is the rate at which the general level of prices for goods and services is rising, and, subsequently, purchasing power is falling. Central banks attempt to stop severe inflation, along with severe deflation, in an attempt to keep the excessive growth of prices to a minimum.

The federal funds rate is the target interest rate set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) at which commercial banks borrow and lend their excess reserves to each other overnight.

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